Time to Accumulate India

Time to accumulate india 1

The mega economic cycle that started in 2003 is well and genuinely reaching an end (from the looks of it).

2003 was a critical time in history –
1. The US had entered Iraq and was pouring money into two wars
2. China was added into WTO
3. Enron, 9/11, Worldcom, Dotcom and Asian crisis had ensured the bottom was well and truly made
4. Banks were giving away cheap loans to the subprime customer to create MBS

The global cycle turned, and we started probably the most significant wealth creation cycle in human history. From 2003 to 2019, the world trade multiplied several times. The world has been the most peaceful ever in these 15odd years with no major wars or conflicts (other than the Middle East but that too has been contained)

We saw some blips, but the recovery was fast and almost V shape (2008,2012 and a few more here and there).

2019 appears like the end of this cycle –

1. Trade wars are hitting global trade numbers
2. EU is breaking apart without a deal
3. China is facing a debt problem along with an over capacity
4. India is slowing down considerably
5. The next growth theme is missing

Maybe we will have to wait out just like between 1997-2003 before another cycle can start.

However, let us take a moment to see what India achieved in this cycle. There are these stories of how Bangladesh and Vietnam are doing so well, and India is not. It is almost painful to see such news articles. In this cycle, India jumped from $400B to $2.8T country. The kind of investment in infra and tech is mind-boggling. Yes, the problem remains, but it is no time to sell India. It is probably time to accumulate India.